Wishful thinking and Evidence Based Analysis

Our propensity to see the world as we would like it rather than the way it is knows no bounds. Thus it is with the prognostications of improved economic performance in the months and years to come based on the belief that things are bound to get better. When pressed on why this should be so, the answer invariably is that it has always been so and that after a downward turn in the economy it always rebounds. All we have to do is wait things out and wait for the sun to shine again.

This attitude and lack of appreciation of the depth and nature of the global recession has resulted in a do nothing and wait and see approach as the economy grinds to a halt, businesses close, construction falters and jobs are lost. Meanwhile the signals from Europe and the United States indicate that the expected economic recovery has not materialized as anticipated and Warren Buffet is of the view that the U.S. is still in a recession.

Unemployment in the U.S. And Europe remains unacceptably high as the debt bubble expands and consumer confidence is diminished. This all indicates continued pressure on our hospitality industry as visitors increasingly demand more value for their money and cut discretionary spending.

Headlines in the media about increased visitor arrivals or increased cruise ship activity engender false hope and an absurd sense of normalcy. For decades the per-capita spend of cruise ship passengers has been in a steady decline that has only accelerated over the past two years. Long stay visitor arrivals have been maintained by heavily discounted room rates and spending on duty free items, restaurants, taxis and water sports are severely restricted. All this translates into a decline in profit and foreign exchange earnings.

There is no doubt that the hospitality industry and its ancillary support businesses are under severe pressure and that we must redouble our efforts to improve the delivery of service and focus on the hospitality side of the business. Visitors to our shores must be welcomed and made to feel that they have had a truly unique experience and the holiday of a lifetime.

It is not just hoteliers and restauranteurs that must rise to the occasion but all the support businesses that provide services and goods to the hospitality industry must play a part in improving efficiency and cutting cost.

The hospitality industry is vital to the success of our economy and is an important factor in the success of our international financial services industry. These two pillars of our economy are the major foreign exchange earners and are vitally important to our quality of life. Any adverse impact upon these two areas of economic activity impacts directly and negatively upon us all whether we work in the public sector or in the business community.

Now is the time for us to be innovative and to be facilitators rather than obstructionists. We must do all that we can to enable the business of Barbados to thrive in difficult economic times. It is a time to cut cost, work harder and smarter and recognize that we will be challenged with difficult economic conditions for the foreseeable future. There is no fairy godmother or bailout from the lottery. We all have to make it happen through our own efforts and ingenuity.