Observation, Prediction and Action

It is not uncommon for me to observe pedestrians walking along the road in rural Barbados with their heads down and being caught completely unawares in a sudden rain squall. This constantly amazes me as one could clearly see the cloud formation approaching for at least 15 minutes or more, and could easily have seen the oncoming squall line before the deluge was upon them.

This brought home to me the importance of being in tune with the environment that one was living in and predicting events that would cause one to take protective action. This requires several different skill sets that might seem obvious but are apparently, like common sense, not so common.

First there is the powers of observation that requires one to scan the sky and the earth or in the case of fishermen the waters and the sky. This does not mean just watching the road for pot holes six feet ahead of the line of march but to look around and far into the distance to monitor oncoming traffic, changing weather conditions and any other unsuspected obstacles to ones safe progress.

Next there is the powers of analysis to process the information gathered by the powers of observation. Of course the better the observation skills the better the quality and quantity of data that will be available for analysis. Thus in the case of an oncoming rain cloud one could assess if it was an isolated rain cloud that might well bypass one's location or a rapidly moving squall line that would sweep along the whole visible area with a heavy down pour.

Having analyzed the problem the ability to formulate a solution and act upon it is the key ingredient for a positive outcome or in some cases one's very survival. The rainy day problem that I outlined above is a relatively simple one but consider a hunter in Africa stalking game through a dry gully and observing distant thunderstorms in the foothills ahead of him. Does he continue his hunt or does he watch the duration of rainfall and decide to move to higher ground to avoid being swept away in a flash flood that may well sweep through the gorge though no rain is falling at his location. The complexity and danger of the situation are bot increased.

Thus it is with the recent announcement that government officials were traveling to London to lobby for a change in the travel tax that has had an adverse impact on our hospitality industry. When tax policy is formulated there is quite some time between the development of the policy, the drafting of the legislation and the passage of the legislation. When the British government announced its intention to tax international travel we should have responded at that time to monitor the development of that policy and to point out the unintended consequences that produced a tax that would be less onerous for passengers flying from London to Hawaii than those flying from London to Barbados. The time to act was at the time of the beginning of policy formulation years ago rather than a year after the enactment of the legislation.

The Barbadian delegation may well find itself standing in the rain if not knee deep in water that has already fallen.