Saturday, October 15, 2011

Need for Thorough Analysis Before Action

There is much that we can learn from the world of aviation and the continuous search for improved safety standards in design and operational procedures. In just over a century we have progressed from aircraft made of wood and fabric powered by relatively unreliable reciprocating engines, to the marvels of today’s world of airliners constructed with composite materials powered by powerful turbine engines of great reliability. Year by year the safety record of air travel has steadily improved to the point where it is safer to fly than drive or to walk across the crosswalks on the ABC highway.

Along the way, we have learnt the difficult lessons of flying great distances in all types of weather at ever increasing speeds and altitudes while improving the reliability and safety of aviation. As ever, when pushing the frontier of knowledge, there has been a cost in dreadful accidents with great loss of life as well as simple mishaps with relatively minor repercussions. The one common thread has been thorough investigations into the cause of aviation accidents to determine the many factors that caused the mishap with a view of taking sound corrective action to prevent or reduce the possibility of a reoccurrence of similar accidents.

Through thorough detective work and painstaking investigative procedures we have come to better understand both the design of airframes and power plants as well as the effects of fatigue and stress on aircrews and improved systems of navigation. The object of aviation accident investigations is not so much to affix blame and take punitive action as it is to arrive at an understanding of the factors that caused the accident so that appropriate corrective actions can be taken.

There is seldom a single factor that results in the crash of an aircraft. Weather, pilot training, management of air crews, adherence to operational procedures, cockpit design, maintenance of the airframe and engines are but some of the factors that must be considered. In a fatal crash many disparate issues that by themselves were not critical may coincide to lead to a disastrous outcome. To produce effective and meaningful corrective action it is critical for us to understand as many of the contributing factors as we can that are involved in a catastrophic incident.

There is much to be said for taking this rigorous and thorough investigative approach to other areas of human activity such as the collapse of buildings, household or industrial fires and industrial or construction accidents. To go a step further the society would benefit from a similar approach in the investigation of the causes of financial collapse of major projects or vital corporate entities that affect us all.

After a long period of denial and obfuscation we seem to be finally getting somewhere with unraveling the collapse of Clico. While the emphasis seems to be on recovering funds for the stranded clients there should be an equally strong case made for improving our systems and governance to minimize the possibility of a repeat of this most unfortunate financial collapse.
Similarly, to my mind, it has never been satisfactorily explained why the Four Seasons Project ran into financial difficulties. It is not enough to say that the global recession was the sole cause. The business plan and its execution might well have been seriously flawed and if so throwing more money at it is not a solution. To tinker with the basic structure in the hope that a solution might be found, is like patching the De Havilland Comet without determining the design flaw that created metal fatigue at the corners of its square windows causing the aircraft to disintegrate at high altitudes.

Certainly this risky approach to investment is not an appropriate use of our National Insurance funds as there is no certainty that Four Seasons two point zero will not spiral out of control in another flat spin.

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