It seems as though each generation has its share of end-of –the –world alarmists whose agenda is not always as transparent as it should be. The most recent failure at prophecy was Harold Camping’s 21st of May 2011 prediction of the end. However it seems that finding himself here on earth with the rest of us after that momentous date he has recalculated a new date for the apocalypse on the 21st of October 2011. Thus far the failure rate for end of the world predictions is 100%.
Camping’s most recent failure at forecasting is not his first however, as he previously predicted the end in 1994. Luckily this did not happen and his Family Radio continued to benefit from his followers contributions, receiving $80 million between 2005 and 2009. It is now valued at $72 million with 350 employees and a payroll of $8.3 million a year.
No doubt there will be more prognostications about the end of the world based on an analysis of the Christian Bible or Mayan and Hopi Indian beliefs. Now there is a new age end of the world scenario developing and it is related to climate change.
Harold Camping meet Al Gore.
The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change prediction a few years ago that the Himalayan glaciers would disappear by the year 2030 falls into the doomsday category. So does the prediction that climate change results in more frequent and stronger hurricanes. There is no clear scientific evidence linking climate change to hurricane activity or other extreme weather events such as floods in Pakistan or recent tornado activity in the United States.
Exaggerated predictions about the effects of climate change have two effects. They so overwhelm us that we do nothing or they are so unbelievable that we again do nothing. In addition, the ability of the Caribbean nations to collectively make any meaningful impact on the global level of carbon dioxide emissions is firmly in the category of wishful thinking. We neither have the clout to change the energy policies of China, India or the United States nor would the total elimination of our own carbon emissions amount to a hill of beans.
Our climate change response should be aimed at improving and protecting our infrastructure and developing greater self reliance on food security. This calls for a long term strategy that would see development retreat from the immediate shoreline and relocate to a more elevated contour line. Indeed the Prime Minister referred to such a strategy some months ago and I applaud him for it. In retrospect we should have done this long ago without the specter of rising sea levels to act as a catalyst. Now it is time for us to do something about it.
Our response to climate change should be measured and deliberate, following our own agenda that results in practical and positive results for our people and our economic and social development. We should avoid the hype and the fantasies of getting something for nothing while investing in sound solutions that give us the best return for our investment. We must avoid the politically correct solutions and resist jumping on the latest bandwagon that only creates jobs in China, the US or the EU. Instead we must develop our own solutions with a clear eye on the benefits and cost to ourselves and not allow cheap money to induce us to make choices that disadvantage us in the long run.
The end of the world is not near and we should plan for a long future.
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