Sunday, October 31, 2010
When discussing alternative energy we must first define the energy needs of Barbados and the reasons for developing energy sources that are not derived from fossil fuels, that is, oil, natural gas or coal. The environmentalists would say that our prime reason to develop alternative energy would be to decrease our carbon footprint or the carbon dioxide emissions that we produce to generate electricity. Economists view the problem as a dangerous threat to our foreign reserves as the price of oil escalates. Dreamers see alternative energy as a free source of energy supplied by wind, sun or the sea seldom counting the capital cost and the Co2 emission cost of the production of solar panels, wind turbines or other energy convertors and ongoing maintenance cost.
Our energy requirement, to ensure economic growth and improved quality of life, is a consistent stable source of electrical power generated at the least possible cost. With that as a given, fossil fuel is our best bet at the current price structure though that is likely to change as the world’s economy improves and increased global demand drives up the price of oil.
The alternative energy solutions are only partial solutions that provide energy at high cost relative to the current generating cost and only provide energy either during daylight hours or when the wind blows. This means that conventional generating capacity must always be available to provide demand in hours of darkness or when the wind velocity is insufficient. Additionally, because of our small land mass and high population density, there are significant physical constraints to the establishment of industrial alternative energy generating capacity. As a result our solar and wind generating solutions will be of necessity small scale solutions that will at best only partially reduce our reliance on oil to generate electrical power.
Given our need to develop long term plans for the replacement of generating capacity and to provide for increased consumption we need to define the core generating needs over the next 25 years and plan for the acquisition of the appropriate generators of power that will deliver reliable 7/24 electrical power at the best predictable cost while reducing our carbon footprint.
With the price of oil forecast to reach $200 or $300 a barrel in the next 5 years or so, the equation for Barbados becomes radically altered. Clean coal solutions exist that can provide the generating capacity that we need at a more stable price than oil though with an increased capital cost. Alternatively we must consider nuclear energy with new generation mini reactors with low levels of nuclear waste. Now is the time for us to discuss the pros and cons of our energy future based on the best scientific and economic analysis. There is an urgent need for us to act swiftly as it will take years to develop and install new generating capacity as well as hone the technical skills to manage whatever technology we decide upon.
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