Doomsday Prophecies

It seems as though each generation has its share of end-of –the –world alarmists whose agenda is not always as transparent as it should be.  The most recent failure at prophecy was Harold Camping’s 21^st of May 2011 prediction of the end. However it seems that finding himself here on earth with the rest of us after that momentous date he has recalculated a new date for the apocalypse on the 21^st of October 2011. Thus far the failure rate for end of the world predictions is 100%.

Camping’s most recent failure at forecasting is not his first however, as he previously predicted the end in 1994. Luckily this did not happen and his Family Radio continued to benefit from his followers contributions, receiving $80 million between 2005 and 2009. It is now valued at $72 million with 350 employees and a payroll of $8.3 million a year.

No doubt there will be more prognostications about the end of the world based on an analysis of the Christian Bible or Mayan and Hopi Indian beliefs. Now there is a new age end of the world scenario developing and it is related to climate change.

Harold Camping meet Al Gore.

The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change prediction a few years ago that the Himalayan glaciers would disappear by the year 2030 falls into the doomsday category. So does the prediction that climate change results in more frequent and stronger hurricanes. There is no clear scientific evidence linking climate change to hurricane activity or other extreme weather events such as floods in Pakistan or recent tornado activity in the United States.

Exaggerated predictions about the effects of climate change have two effects. They so overwhelm us that we do nothing or they are so unbelievable that we again do nothing. In addition, the ability of the Caribbean nations to collectively make any meaningful impact on the global level of carbon dioxide emissions is firmly in the category of wishful thinking. We neither have the clout to change the energy policies of China, India or the United States nor would the total elimination of our own carbon emissions amount to a hill of beans.

Our climate change response should be aimed at improving and protecting our infrastructure and developing greater self reliance on food security. This calls for a long term strategy that would see development retreat from the immediate shoreline and relocate to a more elevated contour line. Indeed the Prime Minister referred to such a strategy some months ago and I applaud him for it. In retrospect we should have done this long ago without the specter of rising sea levels to act as a catalyst. Now it is time for us to do something about it.

Our response to climate change should be measured and deliberate, following our own agenda that results in practical and positive results for our people and our economic and social development. We should avoid the hype and the fantasies of getting something for nothing while investing in sound solutions that give us the best return for our investment. We must avoid the politically correct solutions and resist jumping on the latest bandwagon that only creates jobs in China, the US or the EU. Instead we must develop our own solutions with a clear eye on the benefits and cost to ourselves and not allow cheap money to induce us to make choices that disadvantage us in the long run.

The end of the world is not near and we should plan for a long future.

phillip.goddard@braggadax.com

Economic Reality

We are now approaching the third anniversary of the largest economic recession since the great depression of the 1930’s and there seems to be no clear end in sight. While it is important to maintain a positive outlook and to focus on problem solving, we must do so in the context of a hard headed assessment of the challenges that we face without sugar coating the bitter realities of the day. Rising energy and food cost; steadily increasing unemployment and accelerating levels of under employment; declining revenues for the hospitality industry and a sugar industry is a state of collapse.

Barbadians need to be told the truth about the global and regional economic environment if we are to weather this storm so that we may sail into a brighter future some day. We need to cut our consumption and waste at all levels and to rely more heavily on our own resources. We need to examine needless expenditures that are linked to cultural extravagances imported in recent years, like the graduation ceremonies for primary and secondary school students.

As we exhort private citizens to do more with less, the government should set an example by eliminating unessential activities and ensuring that they get value for money in those projects or activities that continue. Increased taxation that fuels fiscal irresponsibility in the public sector is not the answer. Not only has the rate of taxation increased by the elimination of travel and entertainment benefits and the increase of VAT from 15% to 17.5%, but the rising tide of inflation has lifted the VAT boat to unimaginable heights.

Let me explain and do the math. An electric bill of $460 a year ago is now $700 due to the increase in the cost of energy. At a VAT rate of 15% the VAT would have increased from $69 a year ago to $105 today or an increase of $36. However with the VAT rate being increased to 17.5% the VAT on the electric bill today is $122.50 for a total increase of $53.50. That translates to three whole chickens that will not grace the dining table. The same is true for every item that attracts value added tax that you have purchased that has increased in price over the past year. Little wonder many have taken to designing menus at home around VAT free products.

As the rising tide of VAT swamps the efforts of the Barbadian consumer to stay afloat it floods the public coffers to ensure the expanding burden of bloated government. It is past time for a reality check and for government to take the lead in reducing expenditure, blow out the cobwebs of bureaucratic entanglement to stimulate investment and encourage self reliance, expansion and innovation in private economic activities. All Barbadians should be encouraged to participate in a national drive to increase productivity and highlight the many examples that we have today of successful companies that generate foreign exchange earning that is so vital to the growth of our economy.

It is a time for the unvarnished truth and not for political spin. There is just no way one can continue to gild the lily in a time of significant economic stress that is indicated by the large decline in corporate tax revenue. We could start with some believable statistics on our economic performance.

It is a time for strong and articulate leadership to pull our society together and navigate the perils that we face with a confidence in the belief of our own abilities. Thus far we have seen little to encourage us.

phillip.goddard@braggadax.com

Modern Day Slavery

The history of Barbados is inextricably linked with that of slavery and the long struggle to unshackle ourselves from the legal, physical and mental bonds that defined an inhuman condition of servitude and racism. We have come a long way in redressing the iniquities of the past and developing a sense of pride and national identity. As Barbadians we are justly proud of the Parliamentary democracy that we have built and in the many successful achievements of our people.

Modern day Barbados is virtually unrecognizable from the pre World War II colony that existed as an essentially Victorian society. Since then, the velocity of change has been remarkable. More astonishing has been the relative lack of turbulence during the years of transition. There is obviously much to be said for the pragmatism and level headedness of those who guided the destiny of a small island in the Caribbean that has resulted in a unique quality of life.  The men and women who laid the foundations of modern independent Barbados and who toiled to build the institutions of a vibrant democracy were many and from all walks of life who all shared a common love for our island home.

As we reflect on the historical fact of slavery in the 18^th and 19^th century and its impact on our forefathers, we are determined that such evil should never again walk the face of the earth. However it seems as though our focus is on the past and our energies consumed by the pursuit of reparations to redress the manifest injustice of institutionalized slavery. Perhaps there is more that we could do.

Today, slavery exists in many parts of the globe with an estimated 20 million or more human beings in bondage, many of whom live in the harshest of conditions. Given our history and our achievements we should be at the forefront of the fight against human trafficking and modern day slavery wherever it exists. By shining a light on the problem and championing those that carry on the mantle of Wilberforce and Bussa, we would do more for the memory of those enslaved in the past than we would by reliving their experiences, generation after generation.

In the same way that we were in the forefront in our struggle against apartheid in South Africa we should now lead the way against human trafficking and modern day slavery. From Cambodians enslaved on Thai fishing vessels to black slaves of North African Arabs to sex workers of Europe and North America the issue of modern day slavery is a reality, often with death the only exit.

A good place to start is right here at home to ensure that migrant workers are in Barbados of their own free will and protected fully by our labour legislation. This is easier said than done as more advanced and wealthier societies experience serious difficulties investigating human trafficking. The challenge should not deter us however, and having done all that we can to eradicate any vestige of slavery in our own country if it exists, we should embark on a program to counter modern day slavery around the globe.

We owe it to those who have gone before and sacrificed much in the cause of freedom so that we could live in a better place.

phillip.goddard@braggadax.com

Democracy or Totalitarianism: Your Choice

The turbulent and often violent events in North Africa and the Middle East and the death of Al Qaeda’s leader, Bin Laden have evoked responses in Barbados that range from the opaque and timorous to predictable anti-American diatribes. It is as though the global struggle of our age has nothing to do with us except in a very tangential way because we are hosts to the citizens of countries that Al Qaeda declared war upon. We seem to be caught up in the day to day activities of that war without reflecting on the objectives of Al Qaeda to establish a global Caliphate where the rule of Sharia law would be supreme. In essence it would be the establishment of a totalitarian form of government where dissent would be a heresy and ruthlessly suppressed.

While the United States and the EU are the prime battlegrounds for Al Qaeda we cannot forget the attacks in Bali nor be unaware of the fact that Al Qaeda’s objectives are inimical to our way of life, our culture and the religious beliefs of the vast majority of Barbadians. We are a most tolerant society that believes in freedom of religion, freedom of expression and a participatory democracy where we have the right to choose our political leaders. We resist the imposition of a totalitarian or dictatorial form of government with every fibre of our being and we should have the strength of character and courage of our convictions to say so.

Bin Laden and his followers wage total war on men, women and children who oppose their view and stand in the way of their objectives. His death and the death or capture of his lieutenants is welcomed by those who value freedom of choice and champion universal human rights for all people.

Similarly, as individuals demonstrate to bring about change in their system of government and to expand the opportunity for personal freedom in the Arab World and beyond we should condemn the brutal use of military might to slaughter the civilian population. By their actions Gadhafi and his sons have placed themselves beyond the bounds of civilized behavior and if they become the casualties of war so be it.

In the middle of the last century many Barbadians fought against a monstrous tyranny in that great global conflict to defeat the Third Reich and the Japanese Empire. Some of them never returned and others survived to champion an independent Barbados and to engage in the development of a modern democracy that has been a shining example of a successful small independent nation. I do not believe that the Rt. Excellent Errol Barrow would be silent in the face of the tyranny of the 21^st century were he here to witness it. Certainly his record in the Royal Air force during WWII speaks of his courage and determination to see an end of Adolf Hitler and his odious regime. I am sure that he would now share in the satisfaction that I have that Bin Laden like Hitler is no longer with us.

phillip.goddard@braggadax.com

Past Time to Trim Sails

For more than two years the world has been experiencing an economic crisis of epic proportions and despite hopeful prognostications developed through rose tinted glasses is seems as though we are not out of the woods by a long shot. Governments around the world are being forced to cut spending and to adjust their priorities as they seek methods to rekindle their flagging economies. To compound the problem the conflicts in Southwest Asia and the Middle East continue and severe natural disasters have disrupted economic activity and wrought tremendous devastation in Japan and the United States. The signs are not good.

At home, we are experiencing the impact of the global depression by denying the existence of economic gravity and adding punishing taxation while taking no action to control the cost of government and rein in expenditures. Added to this, is the confusion of information that arises out of the conflicting statements made about economic growth or decline by the Central Bank and the statistical department.

Meanwhile, ordinary Barbadian families are in no doubt about their own situation as rising fuel and electricity cost, galloping food prices and increased taxes forces them to economize and cut back severely on discretionary spending and to dip into savings to meet essential payments. Individuals directly involved in the hospitality industry report reduced earnings. Hotel workers, restaurant waiters, red cap porters and taxi drivers all indicate reduced income and the hotel sector indicates that some may well shut their doors.

Small business operators such as vegetable stall owners, coconut vendors, fishermen and shopkeepers all speak of declining sales as people become more careful with their money and cut their consumption. Based on the evidence on the ground it seems as though the statistical department has it right.

Amidst all this confusion, the government announces one grand scheme after another without any indication of how they are to be funded. Yesterday was the last day of April when the Four Seasons Paradise Beach construction was supposed to have been restarted. Apparently it was but an April fool’s joke as yet another one of the countless deadlines for restarting this project has passed and the first new brick yet to be laid.

St. Lucy billion dollar project; the deep water harbor expansion; the Bay Street marina and the St. John Polyclinic all announced and all invisible to the naked eye. Is it all talk and no action?

Since the recent Estimates of Expenditure were laid in Parliament the price of oil has moved from $90 a barrel to $115 presaging another cascade of price increases. The US economic estimates of growth have been downgraded to an anemic 1.8% in the last quarter and inflation has jumped in the EU zone while the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator has experienced a sharp drop.

Perhaps, the Minister of Finance might consider reducing government’s expenditure in light of the global economic realities and the absence of growth in the local economy. Certainly it is the prudent thing to do.

Then there is that 900 pound gorilla sitting in the corner of the room, CLICO.

phillip.goddard@braggadax.com